Predictions for Apple’s March 2012 Event

The iPad HD and other musings…

March 7th is the big day: Apple’s press reveal of the new iPad, likely to be called the iPad 3 or the iPad HD. I’ve had a few people ask me what I think will be happen tomorrow, so here is my prediction for the big event.

iPad HD A6 processor, quad-core with large graphics improvement. Retina Display. Slightly thicker, with improved cameras. I’m a bit undecided on LTE, I fully expect the iPhone to get it later this year, so it could make some sense for the iPad to get it, but I still don’t think the performance/power/packaging equation is there yet. I’m gonna say no on this for now, but I won’t be surprised if it should have it.

All the previous iPad releases had also introduced new software. As a few others have speculated, this could bring about a true iPhoto or Aperture app for iOS. Since iWork, Garageband and iMovie have come on board so far, I’m filing this one in the very likely category. I personally think we will see both, Aperture for iOS being a purchased app, and an improved Photos app that incorporates better management to be more like iPhoto.

This next thought isn’t mine, so I’m just gonna link you to his excellently written article, but the idea of true haptic feedback is extremely tasty. True, this is probably more of something I want to see versus something we are likely to see, but as he concludes, this would also exemplify Apple perfectly. → What if the secret feature of the iPad 3 is a new touch-feedback technology?

You’ll note I said that I think it will be called the iPad HD. This is because I think the iPad HD will be the new “iPad 3” at the same price points as the current models, but that we will see Apple keep the iPad 2 in a new 8GB model (though the standard 16GB is possible too). This model will have a drastically lower price, likely $249-$299. I have seen a few pundits poo-poo on this idea, but most came at it as if it was going to be aimed at corporations. I think they will do it, but it will be aimed at the mass market consumers.

Apple is in a unique position with the iPad that they have never experienced before: they are the king of that market. On top of the market share and mind share, they also have real and vast manufacturing advantages. The Kindle Fire, at $249, is the iPad’s closest competitor. If Apple was to introduce the 8GB iPad 2 for $249, they would likely still make profit on it, and more important, severely undercut sales of other tablets. Steve Jobs was quite specific in his wording, “I will destroy Android”, and we have seen Apple being quite aggressive in the patent wars, but those take years to drag out. A sub-$300 iPad though would be a direct shot at Android, while being inscrutably legal, and even more important, further entrenching their marketshare advantage in the tablet market. We have also already seen this exact model twice now, the iPhone 4 intro saw the 3GS remain available, and then the iPhone 4S launch created an 8GB iPhone 4 model that was cheaper.

AppleTV I don’t think iPad will be the only star of the show though. I agree with the evidence that we will see an AppleTV update, and suspect it will run an A5 processor, display full 1080p, and feature a completely revamped interface. That is a fairly mellow prediction that in inline with most the pundits; but two years ago I predicted a specific feature of the AppleTV that I feel will reveal itself this year: This new AppleTV will play iOS games, using any iOS device as a controller, and possible including a basic physical controller as well.

TV by Apple I’m rather surprised I haven’t heard a single post about this prediction, but from the Jobs biography we know that Apple was looking at the TV market heavily, and we know the Apple TV is out of stock almost universally. While I fully expect to see the AppleTV described above, its possible we could see the 1st Gen TV by Apple, with iOS integrated. Personally, I’m gonna give this about a 4% change of happening, but it is something to look out for.

iOS 5.1 will also be released, and available for download immediately. Lastly, while not a part of the reveal itself, expect to see a spec bump in the Mac Mini and/or MacBook Pro line quietly posted after the show.