Predictions for Apple’s October 2012 Event

Later today Apple will hold a special event at the California Theater. Its widely expected that this will be the reveal of a new, 7.85” iPad. below are my predictions for today’s events.

iPad mini - The iPad mini will be revealed today. It will have a Lightning connector, FaceTime HD front camera and a rear-facing 5MP camera (same one from the touch). It will run Apple’s A5 chip (on a 32nm process) and 1GB RAM.

Which leads us to pricing. The best leak I’ve seen thus far seems to indicate 24 SKU’s. While most sites are expecting that to be 4 storage options (8,16,32,64), I don’t think that is the case. At this time only one iOS device is sold with 8GB of storage, and that’s the 2 year old iPhone 4. The iPod touch, and the iPad both start at 16GB, and I think the mini will contonue that trend. However, I don’t see the iPad 3 getting any updates yet, and therefore Apple won’t use the mini to add 128GB of storage either (I don’t think 128 will ever be an option to be honest). That leaves three sizes (16, 32 & 64) spread across 24 SKU’s (for comparison, there are 18 iPad 3 SKU’s). The fact there are only 18 iPad 3 SKU’s was throwing me off at first, but then it dawned on me: there are actually 24 iPad SKU’s. 18 are for retina iPads, and 4 are for non-retina iPads. Therefore, here is my price and model breakdown prediction:

• 16/32/64 Black/White WiFi w/ A5- $199/$249/$299 • 16/32/64 Black/White 4G w/ A5- $299/$349/$399 • 16/32/64 Black/White WiFi w/ Retina & A5X- $399/$449/$499 • 16/32/64 Black/White 4G w/ Retina & A5X- $499/$549/$599

Apple enjoys unparalleled advantages in the supply chain. Their economies of scale are simply unequaled in the mobile space, and I expect this is when they will use that power to their advantage. Yes, it will reduce their profit margin, but it won’t eliminate it. But an aggressive pricing move could very well eliminate some competitors.

The iPad mini represents a new line for Apple, not just an extension of the iPad. And much like the iPad rumors that flew around before its introduction, the price expected was far higher than what Apple released. I think we’ll see a repeat of that today. Most expectations are for the iPad to start at the $300-$400 range, but i expect it will actually be revealed for far less.

13” MacBook Pro w/ Retina Display - This one has been talked about a lot as well, and I agree it’s coming. But I don’t think this will be just a new product added to the Pro line up. With the 15” rMBP, it made sense to add it in making essentially two 15” lines. But there already are two 13” lines, and adding a rMBP that is equivalent to the 15” rMBP ends up with a product extremely similar to the existing MBA. Therefore, I suspect the current 13” MBP will be dropped. The new 13” rMBP will be the same thickness as the 15” rMBP, with a much bigger battery, 8GB RAM with a 16GB option, and 256/512/768 SSD options. It will gain the integrated/discrete graphics switching and dual thunderbolt ports. Starting price will be $1599.

iTunes 11 - This one is probably the most sure bet, since Apple already said they would release it in October. If you want to know about it, watch the iPhone 5 keynote, they demo it pretty well there.

iWork ‘12 - This one is more of a hope than an expectation, but the iWork suite really, really needs an update. Badly.

iBookstore/iBooks Author/iBooks - We will see updates to the entire iBook ecosystem and an expansion into some new markets.